According to Knowland’s updated U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF), which provides the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years, the forecast remains unchanged from its initial release in November.
Knowland’s MRF provides the percentage of demand growth as the industry moves into recovery. The highlights from the last quarter of 2021 are as follows:
October ended significantly stronger than forecasted: November and December saw some cooling, but it was in line with native seasonality. However, the quarter ended in line with the prior forecast.
Last year ended with 28.3% of 2019 events recovered: For the fourth quarter, the recovery to 2019 was 46.5%. This was slightly lower than predicted in the last forecast but in line with anticipated shifts.
Currently, the forecast for 2022-2024 remains unchanged from the November forecast:
- 58.3% recovery by the end of 2022, with the last four months of the year at almost 70% recovery.
- 86.9% recovery by the end of 2023, with the last four months of the year at 99.8% recovery.
- 2024 will be a significant growth year reaching 109.8% of 2019 levels by the end of the year.
“Despite concerns from Omicron, we did not see significant shifts in meeting patterns beyond normal seasonality changes,” said Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland. “We believe recovery will continue as initially forecast. We are optimistic about the stabilization we have seen in the past few months as a leading indicator that recovery is well underway.”
Hoteliers can look to the forecast as an additional tool to aid in a variety of operational decisions. The data informs staffing for front desk and housekeeping teams, as well as sales teams, as they anticipate the return of seasonal demand. Plus, owners and asset managers can leverage the forecast to optimize their investment in both above-property and property-level sales by knowing when to begin preselling to maximize share capture.