CoStar and Tourism Economics further downgraded growth projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. hotel forecast released at the 17th Annual Hotel Data Conference.
Given continued underperformance and elevated macroeconomic concerns, forecasted growth rates were lowered across the top-line metrics: demand (-0.6ppts), ADR (-0.5 ppts) and RevPAR (-1.1 ppts).
Similar adjustments were made for 2026: demand (-0.5 ppts), ADR (-0.3 ppts) and RevPAR (-0.7 ppts).
“Unrelenting uncertainty and inflation, coupled with tough calendar comps and changing travel patterns, have caused lower demand,” said Amanda Hite, president, STR. “Additionally, as the year has unfolded, we’ve seen rate growth converge closer with demand. We expect little change in the economic outlook over the next 18 months, but we are optimistic that once trade talks have concluded and the impact of the budget reconciliation bill comes to fruition, hotel performance will recover.”
“The slowing U.S. economy should absorb the effects of tariffs without tipping into a recession,” said Aran Ryan, director, industry studies, Tourism Economics. “The current environment—characterized by slowing consumer spending, reduced business capital spending and declining international visitation—will transition to one boosted moderately by tax cuts and less policy uncertainty as we look to 2026.”
“While our GOPPAR forecast remains unchanged from the previous revision, GOP margins were revised down 0.3ppts for 2025 and 2.3ppts for 2026, mainly due to a potential increase in expenses, particularly F&B,” Hite said.
