AAHOA has entered into a strategic partnership with Kalibri Labs, launching a nationwide investigation into the effects of recent federal policy changes and anticipated industry challenges.
Early findings reveal a mixed outlook for the hospitality sector in 2025: While roughly one-third of U.S. hotel submarkets are currently outperforming 2024 benchmarks, a larger share is experiencing declines—particularly in government and corporate segments—raising early concerns about demand heading into the peak summer travel season.
Key findings
From AAHOA’s March 2025 member survey:
- 69% of hotel owners reported business declines tied to recent federal policy changes.
- Nearly 50% cited reductions in government per-diem bookings over the past 30 days, with similar expectations for future demand.
- 61% said bookings for the critical summer period (Memorial Day–July 4) are pacing behind 2024.
- Fewer than 5% reported any growth in government or general business bookings.
- Properties near military bases and those relying on transient traffic from Canada and Mexico are experiencing notable declines.
From Kalibri Labs’ Market Intelligence (as of YTD Q1 2025):
- Government per diem business (YTD actualized room nights) is down 9% year-over-year (YOY), with future government bookings (on-the-books room nights) down 16% for the next 30 days compared to 2024.
- Corporate business (YTD actualized room nights) is down 4% YOY, with future bookings (on-the-books room nights) for the next 30 days down by 2% compared to 2024.
- Overall, across all rate segments, future bookings for the next 30 days in 2025 (as of the end of March) are pacing 3% behind the same period in 2024.
- Upper-midscale hotels were just 1% below 2024 levels in actual YTD room night demand (all rate segments) through March but have considerably fewer bookings 30 days into the future than in 2024 (-12%).
- Upscale and upper-upscale hotels were at 2024 levels or slightly below (-1%) in actual room night demand (all rate segments) through March, but upscale hotels were below 2024 in 30-day future bookings by 7%, and upper-upscale by 4%.
- All extended-stay brands (lower and upper tier) are outperforming 2024 by 1%–2% (all rate segments) despite having lower room night demand in government and corporate segments.
- While one-third of Kalibri’s 975 submarkets are pacing ahead compared to 2024, more than 60% are pacing behind 2024 for bookings 30 days out. California has the highest number of submarkets pacing ahead of the prior year—likely due to wildfire response and related housing needs. Florida also shows a high number of resort/destination submarkets pacing ahead of 2024, while urban metro, suburban and airport submarkets in the state show mixed results.
“These findings are not just numbers—they reflect the real-world challenges and opportunities facing our members,” said AAHOA Chairman Miraj S. Patel. “It’s encouraging to see that some markets are holding steady or growing, but the overall outlook calls for close attention and action. As owners, we are on the front lines, and partnerships like this help ensure our perspective is represented in broader industry discussions.”
Laura Lee Blake, AAHOA president/CEO, said, “The hospitality industry is navigating a period of change, and the ability to make informed, data-driven decisions is more important than ever. This collaboration with Kalibri Labs helps paint a fuller picture of what hotel owners are experiencing across different markets and property types. While some segments are showing resilience, others are beginning to feel the pressure of recent federal shifts. By working together, we can better understand these changes and advocate for policies that support sustainable industry growth.”
Cindy Estis Green, CEO, Kalibri Labs, added, “While some markets are managing well through a turbulent period, the broader trend shows evidence of contraction—particularly in government and corporate segments. Our collaboration with AAHOA brings both context and clarity to these early warning signs.”
