Knowland’s U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast remains stable and still on track with March exceeding recovery targets and some markets at or near recovery by end of this year.
The company has released an update to its U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) and associated Top 25 U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF25) to provide the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years.
“While Omicron created a minor setback in January, the next two months stabilized the performance of the quarter,” said Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland. “We anticipate the second quarter of the year will continue this pace of recovery and potentially accelerate the process. From the MRF25 recovery perspective, there was volatility among the markets. However, several markets managed to improve their recovery outlook.”
She added, “Even those markets with lowered forecasts saw significant upticks in March which was almost enough to eliminate the need for a lowered forecast. The main difference in the markets where the forecast was raised is that they experienced minimal dips in January, so the February and March rebound propelled them even higher.”
Since the forecast in February, the outlook for the U.S. is unchanged. However, there has been a shift in performance across some of the top 25 markets:
- MRF Q1 recovery metrics: Omicron concerns caused a mild cooling isolated to January, while February met recovery targets. Month-over-month growth was even stronger than anticipated because of the lackluster January performance. March exceeded recovery targets and the stronger forecasted rebound combined with February performance stabilized the forecast for the U.S. as a whole.
- MRF25 update: For five markets the recovery forecast improved from the last forecast in February, including Anaheim, CA; Miami; Nashville; Tampa, FL; and Washington, DC. The recovery forecast was lowered in 10 markets, including Atlanta; Chicago; Dallas; Houston; Los Angeles; Minneapolis; Oahu Island (Hawaii); Orlando; San Francisco; and Seattle. The remaining top 25 markets are unchanged from February.
- Recovery by the end of 2022: Two markets will be fully recovered by the end of 2022: Phoenix and Tampa (pictured above). This remains unchanged from the February forecast. Four markets will be above 80% recovery. Nashville shifted into this category with this forecast. Sixteen markets will be between 50% and 80% recovery. Only Detroit, Oahu and Chicago are forecasted to be less than 50% recovered by the end of 2022. Chicago shifted into this category while Norfolk, VA, moved into the 50-80% category.
- Significant recovery in 2023: Seven markets will achieve 100% or greater recovery including Phoenix; Tampa; Miami; Dallas; Nashville; Washington; and Anaheim, CA. Eight will reach 90% or better recovery. Seven will fall between 75% and 90% recovery. Finally, Denver, Oahu and Detroit will fall below 75% recovery.
- Closer to normal in 2024: A total of 21 of the 25 markets will achieve 100% or greater recovery by 2024. Atlanta, Denver and Chicago will achieve 90% or better recovery. Detroit is anticipated to be below 75% recovery.