A new analysis from Kalibri Labs reveals the current impact of federal funding changes and macroeconomic uncertainty on the U.S. hotel industry. The white paper, “Navigating Market Turbulence: The Impact of Federal Policy Changes on U.S. Hotel Performance and Demand Outlook,” analyzes data from over 35,000 hotels and reveals how federal policy decisions are affecting travel segments and regional markets.
Trends reflect performance from January 2024 through early April 2025, including actualized room nights through April 5 and 30-day future bookings as of April 4 (on-the-books).
- U.S. hotel market shows mixed performance: Of 334 U.S. markets, 53% (177) saw year-to-date (YTD) declines of up to 22%, while 47% (157) remained flat or improved. Total U.S. room night volume is down 1% year-over-year, with future bookings pacing 4% below 2024 levels.
- Government travel sees steep decline: 76% of 334 U.S. markets reported YTD declines in government per-diem transient room nights. Total U.S. government per-diem transient bookings are down 9% YTD, with future bookings 20% below 2024 levels.
- Washington, DC, area reflects policy impact: The Washington, DC, market (DC/MD/VA) posted a 20% YTD drop in government per-diem bookings and a 44% decline in 30-day future government per-diem bookings (as of April 4).
“Federal policy is reshaping travel patterns in ways that directly impact business planning and hotel profitability,” said Cindy Estis Green, cofounder/CEO, Kalibri Labs. “We have always seen muted travel growth during times of economic uncertainty and the duration and extent of the disruption is not yet known. However, to navigate this evolving landscape, commercial teams need a granular, real-time view of demand. Precision—not broad targeting—will define the winners in today’s hospitality market. Consumers and businesses will always return to traveling, but the short-term decisions made to manage this turbulent period are critical as they can affect long-term hotel results for years to come.”
