According to Knowland‘s U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) and associated Top 25 U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF25), meeting volume outperformed in Q4 2022. The company also shifted the 2023 forecast higher than was predicted in Q3 2022.
“The fourth quarter outperformed the Knowland forecast by 8.4%, driven by top market growth,” said Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland. “Additionally, both November and December exceeded 2019 numbers. This is the first time this has happened since the pandemic began. 2023 is poised to be a growth year, and hotels should be focused on optimizing demand and profitability.”
Knowland’s forecasts provide an overview of how the U.S. as a whole and the top 25 markets, specifically, will move through recovery.
- U.S. Markets Recovery Forecast update: 2022 outperformed in Q4, raising the year-end capture to 77.8% from the October 2022 forecast of 73.1% recovery. Compared to 2019, the updated 2023 and 2024 forecasts are: 110.2% in 2023 (106.4% in October forecast) and 133.3% in 2024(129.2% in October forecast)
- Top 25 Markets Recovery Forecast update: Four markets—Dallas, Nashville, Phoenix and Tampa—ended 2022 fully recovered to 2019 levels. Twelve markets outperformed the October forecast, including Anaheim, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Oahu Island, Orlando, San Diego, Seattle and St. Louis.
- Recovery by the end of 2023: Thirteen markets are forecasted to achieve full recovery: Anaheim, Atlanta, Denver, Houston, Miami, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Oahu Island, Orlando, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis. Four markets (Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles and New York) will end the year between 90% and 100%. The remaining four markets (Chicago; Las Vegas; Philadelphia; and Washington, DC) will be under 90%.
- Back to normal in 2024: All but two markets (Boston and Chicago) will be back to normal growth.
