Knowland has released its quarterly update to its U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) and associated Top 25 U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF25) showing improved projected performance with a goal of providing the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years.
“Each month of the second quarter realized significant growth,” said Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland. “With the exception of a few markets, growth exceeded predictions resulting in a shift in the MRF. Even with ongoing concerns about the economy and COVID variants, the industry is rebounding in an unprecedented way. In Q1, U.S meetings and events volume was flat with the forecast while Q2 overperformed by 25.8% more actualized meetings and events. Corporate events are leading the charge in this recovery with several markets already recovered at more than 90% of 2019 levels in this segment.”
Knowland’s forecasts provide an overview of how the U.S. as a whole and the top 25 markets, specifically, will move through recovery. Both the overall U.S. and the top 25 markets realized a significant shift in performance. A breakdown of the details is below:
- Since the forecast in April, the outlook for the U.S. has been raised from 58.3% recovery by the end of 2022 to 72.1% recovery. Meeting levels will recover to 106.3% of 2019 levels in 2023 and 115.7% in 2024.
- For 11 of the top 25 markets, the recovery forecast improved from the last projection in April, including Anaheim, CA; Atlanta; Chicago; Denver; Detroit; Nashville; New Orleans; Oahu Island, HI; Orlando; San Diego; and Seattle. In four markets, the recovery forecast was lowered, including Houston; Philadelphia; Phoenix; and Washington, DC. The remaining top 25 markets are unchanged from February.
- Four markets will be fully recovered by the end of the year: Phoenix; Dallas; Tampa, FL; and Nashville. Dallas and Nashville are new additions to this list from April. Three markets will be above 80% recovery: Atlanta; Anaheim, CA; and Miami. Anaheim, CA is a new entry into this category with this updated forecast. A total of 14 markets will be between 50% and 80% recovery. Only Norfolk, VA; Oahu Island, HI; Philadelphia; and Seattle are forecasted to be less than 50% recovered by the end of the year. Norfolk, VA; Philadelphia; and Seattle shifted into this category, while Detroit and Chicago moved into the 50-80% category.
- An additional seven markets will achieve 100% or greater recovery including Anaheim, CA; Denver; Miami; San Diego; Washington, DC; Atlanta; and New Orleans. Six will reach 90% or better recovery: Boston, San Francisco, Houston, New York, Orlando and Chicago. The remaining markets will fall between 75% and 90% recovery.
- A total of 23 of the 25 markets will achieve 100% or greater recovery by 2024. Philadelphia and Detroit will achieve 90% or better recovery during 2024.
